How Early-Season DCI Scores Could Predict End-Of-Season Results
How Early-Season DCI Scores Could Predict End-Of-Season Results
How can early season caption scores predict who might win the next DCI World Championship?

When the drum corps season comes to a close in August, five caption awards will be handed out by the judges to the different sections of the corps at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Those awards are as follows:
- Donald Angelica Best General Effect Award
- Fred Sanford Best Percussion Performance Award
- John Brazale Best Visual Performance Award
- George Zingali Best Color Guard Award
- Jim Ott Best Brass Performance Award
As the beginning of the 2018 DCI campaign approaches, let's take a closer look at how the start of the season has shaped its ending for caption award winners.
GENERAL EFFECT
The Donald Angelica Best General Effect Award may be the single most prominent indicator of how the season will play out. Since 2011, every corps that has won this caption award has won the DCI World Championship except for Carolina Crown in 2015. Even though Crown ended up winning G.E. that year, the Blue Devils surpassed them on finals night to win the world championship.
Oddly enough, since 2011, no corps which has won G.E. at the end of the season has started the season scoring less than a 28.700, except for 2015 Crown when they started the season with a 27.300. But, Carolina Crown also holds the distinction of beginning the season with the highest G.E. score since 2011 with a 30.800 in 2013—the same year as its only DCI World Championship title.
General Effect | |||
| Year | Corps | 1st Score of Year | Finals Average |
2011 | The Cadets* | 29.400 | 39.483 |
| 2012 | Blue Devils* | 29.600 | 39.450 |
| 2013 | Carolina Crown* | 30.800 | 39.317 |
| 2014 | Blue Devils* | 28.700 | 39.667 |
| 2015 | Carolina Crown | 27.300 | 38.967 |
| 2016 | Bluecoats* | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | Blue Devils* | 28.700 | 39.367 |
| 2018 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
*Won the DCI World Championship
PERCUSSION
While the caption for the best General Effect is a great indicator of who might win it all, the Fred Sanford Best Percussion Performance Award is not. The only corps to capture the world championship and win the drum trophy since 2011 are the Blue Devils (2012 and 2015).
However, the Santa Clara Vanguard has been in control of this caption for the last several years. Winning the last three out of four years, SCV will be looking for a third Fred Sanford award in a row in 2018. Only three other times in DCI history has the drum title been won three years in a row. The Cadets were the last to do it in 2001-2003; Santa Clara Vanguard did it their first time between 1973 and 1975.
If SCV were to win drums again, then they could go for four in a row, which would match the longest streak in DCI history. The Blue Devils won four drum titles in a row between 1983-86.
Percussion | |||
Year | Corps | 1st Score of Year | Finals Average |
| 2011 | Cavaliers | 15.400 | 19.500 |
| 2012 | Blue Devils* | 14.400 | 19.533 |
| 2013 | The Cadets | 14.800 | 19.700 |
| 2014 | SCV | 14.500 | 19.633 |
| 2015 | Blue Devils* | 13.900 | 19.483 |
| 2016 | SCV | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | SCV | 14.400 | 19.583 |
| 2018 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
*Won the DCI World Championship
VISUAL PERFORMANCE
The top honor for the best "feet" in drum corps is called the John Brazale Best Visual Performance Award. Like the award for G.E., the corps that wins best visual is almost always going to find itself on top of the overall DCI standings.
Since 2011, only the 2016 Bluecoats have won the DCI World Championship without having won the visual performance award. Carolina Crown captured the award in 2016, finishing third overall. Crown also tied for the best visual award in 2012 with the Blue Devils, who won the DCI Championship that year. Crown came in second.
If 2018 holds true to the scores of the past, look out for corps scoring 14.000 and above at their first show of the season. Since 2011, only two corps have started the season below a 14.000 and have gone on to win the best visual performance award.
Carolina Crown started the 2013 year off with a 13.900. Then went on to win the visual award and the world championship. The Cadets had the lowest starting number with a 13.300. However, they won the overall championship and ended the season with the second highest visual performance average since 2011 (19.767).
Visual Performance | |||
| Year | Corps | 1st Score of Year | Finals Average |
| 2011 | The Cadets* | 13.300 | 19.767 |
| 2012 | Carolina Crown | 14.100 | 19.467 |
| Blue Devils* | 14.600 | 19.467 | |
| 2013 | Carolina Crown* | 13.900 | 19.667 |
| 2014 | Blue Devils* | 14.400 | 19.900 |
| 2015 | Blue Devils* | 14.100 | 19.567 |
| 2016 | Carolina Crown | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | Blue Devils* | 14.700 | 19.567 |
| 2018 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
*Won the DCI World Championship
COLOR GUARD
The biggest question when it comes to the color guard caption in 2018 may be will the Blue Devils return to the top? BD had one of the most dominating runs in DCI history when it comes to any caption award.
Beginning in 2008, the Blue Devils won an unbelievable eight best color guard awards in a row. The streak finally came to an end in 2016 when Carolina Crown unseated them. Last season, Santa Clara Vanguard captured the title.
Keep an eye out for the Boston Crusaders as well. Boston's resurgence in 2017 was propelled in large part by a revamped instructional staff including a new guard staff—the same guard staff that ended BD's streak in 2016 at Crown. Since the new staff's arrival in Boston, the guard has gone from finishing ninth in 2015 to finishing third in 2017.
Color Guard | |||
| Year | Corps | 1st Score of Year | Finals Average |
| 2011 | Blue Devils | 14.900 | 19.633 |
| 2012 | Blue Devils* | 14.800 | 19.767 |
| 2013 | Blue Devils | 14.700 | 19.833 |
| 2014 | Blue Devils* | 15.000 | 19.933 |
| 2015 | Blue Devils* | 14.600 | 19.367 |
| 2016 | Carolina Crown | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | SCV | 13.400 | 19.600 |
| 2018 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
*Won the DCI World Championship
BRASS
While we all love the raw power that DCI hornlines can peel paint with, the winners of the brass caption award have not fared all that well when it comes to winning world championships. Since 2011, only two corps have won the Jim Ott award and have won the DCI World Championship. The Blue Devils did it in 2014 and Crown did it the year before in 2013.
However, that doesn't diminish the fact that the Carolina Crown has controlled the brass award since 2011. Crown has won the award five times while only the Blue Devils ('14) and The Cadets ('15) managed to beat Crown's hornline.
Aside from The Cadets in 2015 (13.700), the lowest opening brass score that went on to win the Jim Ott award was a 14.300 by Carolina Crown in 2017.
Brass | |||
| Year | Corps | 1st Score of Year | Finals Average |
| 2011 | Carolina Crown | 15.200 | 19.500 |
| 2012 | Carolina Crown | 14.900 | 19.633 |
| 2013 | Carolina Crown* | 14.800 | 19.700 |
| 2014 | Blue Devils* | 14.900 | 19.733 |
| 2015 | The Cadets | 13.700 | 19.533 |
| 2016 | Carolina Crown | N/A | N/A |
| 2017 | Carolina Crown | 14.300 | 19.733 |
| 2018 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
*Won the DCI World Championship